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MON · AUG 3 · 5:51 PM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

Friday's relief rally didn't survive the weekend. Tokyo spent Monday unwinding two of last week's biggest stories at once: Finance Minister Katayama formally confirmed the joint Tokyo-Washington yen intervention, and the resulting currency surge tore through the same chip-equipment names that led Friday's charge, while Seoul's Samsung and SK Hynix gave back most of their historic one-day gains. The Nikkei closed lower for the first time in three sessions, a heavy slate of Japanese earnings lands after tonight's bell, and Kumamoto's quake recovery enters its second week under record heat.

Katayama makes it official: the yen defense was a US-Japan operation, and Tokyo says it will act again

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed Monday that Friday's currency intervention was coordinated between Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury, the first joint yen intervention since 2011, saying the ministry "remains attentive and in close communication with counterparts at the US Treasury" and would not hesitate to act again, according to Nikkei Asia and CNBC. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the readiness for further joint action. The yen extended its recovery from Thursday's 40-year-low brush above 163, trading around 155-157 to the dollar Monday versus Friday's 157.57 close, according to Nikkei Asia.

Chip-equipment names take the brunt of the reversal — Advantest and Tokyo Electron slide far harder than the index

The Nikkei 225 gave back a chunk of Friday's advance as the sharply stronger yen weighed on exporters and automakers, according to Bloomberg. But it was the chip-equipment complex that took the real hit: Advantest (6857) and Tokyo Electron (8035) both dropped far harder than the broader index, as Friday's regional relief rally — built on Amazon and Microsoft's AI capex guidance — collided with a fresh KOSPI collapse in the same names' Korean peers. The divergence is a clean read on how much of Friday's Tokyo gain was borrowed from Seoul's momentum rather than standing on its own.

Kioxia keeps climbing on last week's buyback and split — a lone bright spot in a red chip tape

Kioxia (285A) shares extended their post-earnings rally Monday, continuing to draw buyers after last week's blockbuster fiscal first-quarter results, an 800 billion yen buyback authorization and a 3-for-1 stock split, according to Investing.com. Kioxia's NAND-only franchise has largely decoupled from the DRAM-and-HBM-driven Samsung/SK Hynix rout hitting Seoul — a reminder that not every name in the memory complex trades on the same signal right now.

A heavy slate of Japanese earnings lands after tonight's close

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306), Mitsubishi Corporation (8058), Itochu (8001), Marubeni (8002), Yamato Holdings, Isuzu Motors, Fuji Corporation and Shionogi are all scheduled to report after today's 3:30pm close, according to MarketScreener's financial calendar — the first full session's worth of results since Friday's rally and today's currency and chip-sector volatility, and an early test of whether corporate Japan's numbers can hold investor attention against the intervention story.

Toyota reports Tuesday — a fifth straight profit decline expected, with the earthquake now part of the read

Toyota (7203) is scheduled to report April-June results on Tuesday, with analysts surveyed by LSEG projecting operating profit of roughly 1.11 trillion yen, down about 5% from a year earlier and a fifth consecutive quarterly decline, according to Reuters, via Investing.com. Global Toyota and Lexus sales fell 3% in the quarter on weaker China and Middle East demand, and investors will also be watching whether the company revises its 3 trillion yen full-year operating profit forecast given the added drag from last week's Kumamoto earthquake and Middle East-linked supply costs.

Kumamoto's recovery enters record heat as evacuees await relocation

The confirmed death toll from the magnitude-7.1 earthquake held at 38 Monday, with 8,556 people still spread across 206 evacuation centers and 4,622 homes counted as damaged, according to The Japan Times. Kumamoto City recorded its first day above 40°C since observations began in 1890, according to Livedoor News, compounding conditions for evacuees still sleeping in cars to avoid crowded shelters. Prefectural officials distributed leaflets Monday on relocating to secondary evacuation facilities, with moves expected to begin as early as Tuesday.

LDP moves the food consumption-tax cut a step closer to law

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party's tax panel delegated final drafting of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's plan to cut the consumption tax on food and non-alcoholic beverages to 1% to committee chairman Itsunori Onodera, according to NHK and Asahi Shimbun. The temporary two-year cut, set to take effect from April 2027, is projected to cost roughly 5 trillion yen in annual revenue, with LDP members still debating how to cover the shortfall — a fiscal question that will shape how the market reads Japan's budget trajectory well into next year.

Global
Seoul gives back most of Friday's historic surge as chip stocks reverse hard

The Kospi closed down roughly 5% Monday, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both falling close to 9%, unwinding a large share of Friday's record-breaking 17.9% single-day surge that had seen the same two stocks jump 27-30%, according to Bloomberg and Seoul Economic Daily. It's a sharp reminder that Friday's move was as much a short-covering snapback as a fundamentals repricing, and it directly explains why Tokyo's own chip-equipment names — which rode the same wave Friday — gave up so much more ground than the broader Nikkei today.

Oil drops more than 5% as Trump pauses the Iran strike and OPEC+ adds supply

Brent crude fell sharply Monday as President Trump held off a planned large-scale strike on Iran, citing the "perimeters of a deal" on the Strait of Hormuz, with new talks set to begin Monday, according to CNBC and Al Jazeera. Iran's own defense ministry has pushed back on Trump's framing, and OPEC+ separately approved roughly 188,000 barrels a day of additional September output while signaling a pause after that, completing the phased unwind of its 2023 voluntary cuts, according to CNBC. The relief is real but conditional — no actual breakthrough has been confirmed, and a similar memorandum collapsed within a month back in June.

AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers Squibb talks could create a top-four global drugmaker

AstraZeneca has held talks with Bristol Myers Squibb on a merger that would combine the two into a roughly $400 billion pharmaceutical giant, according to the Financial Times, via CNBC and The Guardian. AstraZeneca is currently valued around $263 billion and Bristol Myers Squibb around $133 billion; a combination would push the pair toward the fourth-largest drugmaker globally by market value and mark a striking reversal for AstraZeneca, which rebuffed a $118 billion Pfizer approach in 2014. Both companies carry large oncology franchises, which is likely to draw antitrust scrutiny if talks advance.

A Coldcard hardware-wallet flaw has now drained close to $89 million across four waves

A firmware flaw in Coldcard hardware wallets, tracing to a 2021 release with a predictable random-number generator, has been exploited in a fourth wave, pushing total losses close to $89 million from more than 4,500 addresses, according to CoinDesk and Cointelegraph. Researchers still can't confirm whether one operator is running all four waves. Bitcoin itself slipped under $63,000 Monday despite the Iran de-escalation, with the Coldcard losses adding to the pressure, according to CoinDesk.

A hawkish Fed dissent from last week is still working through bond and dollar markets

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady for a second straight meeting last Wednesday under Chair Kevin Warsh, but three regional presidents — Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari and Dallas's Lorie Logan — dissented in favor of a hike, the first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016, according to Bloomberg. The split is still shaping how traders read Warsh's credibility on the inflation fight, a dynamic layered on top of this week's currency-intervention story since US rate expectations are one of the two levers, alongside intervention, now driving the yen.

Tech
SpaceX reports its first-ever public earnings Tuesday, with a $1.4 trillion valuation on the line

SpaceX is set to report its first earnings as a newly public company Tuesday, and analysts are watching five numbers in particular: Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, Starship program burn rate, free cash flow, and the gap between reported revenue and the assumptions baked into its $1.4 trillion valuation, according to The Motley Fool. It's the most closely watched debut earnings print of the year outside the Magnificent Seven, and a clean beat or miss will likely set the tone for how the market treats other richly valued private-to-public space and AI infrastructure names.

Alibaba says its newest AI model rivals Anthropic's on some benchmarks, plans to open the weights next week

Alibaba said its 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max model tops rival Kimi K3 on some benchmarks and plans to release the weights for Qwen3.8-Max and a smaller Qwen3.8-27B variant next week, according to Bloomberg, via Techmeme. Nikkei Asia separately reports the "second only to Fable 5" framing some coverage attached to the release doesn't hold up under scrutiny, according to Nikkei Asia — a useful check on how much of the open-weight race is genuine capability versus marketing framing.

Robinhood's prediction-markets revenue jumps more than 10-fold, now bigger than its stock or crypto business

Robinhood's prediction-markets revenue surged more than tenfold year-over-year to $156 million in the second quarter, topping both its stock and crypto trading revenue for the first time as speculators shift toward real-world event betting, according to The Information, via Techmeme. It's a structural shift in how the company makes money, and it lands the same week New York state sued rival platform Kalshi over unlicensed betting operations, according to The Daily Hodl — a regulatory overhang the whole prediction-market category will have to navigate.

Four US states have already rolled back data center tax breaks, with nine more weighing it

Four US states have rolled back or paused data center tax incentives and nine others are considering repeal measures, a shift that could add 7% or more to equipment costs for AI infrastructure buildouts, according to The Information, via Techmeme. It's a quiet but real cost headwind for the hyperscaler capex story that's been the single biggest demand driver for Japan's chip-equipment names all year.

Japanese startups race into defense drones as Tokyo tries to cut reliance on Chinese hardware

Japanese startups are rushing to enter defense drone production as the government looks to reduce dependence on Chinese industrial drones, which currently control 91% of Japan's market, according to Nikkei Asia, via Techmeme. It's a direct extension of the broader economic-security push already reshaping procurement across Japan's defense and industrial names.

Central Asia enters the AI data center race

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are both building out AI data center capacity, led by Uzbekistan's 6-megawatt TAS-1 facility due by year-end and Kazakhstan's planned 125-megawatt site targeting 100,000 Nvidia chips by 2027, according to Nikkei Asia, via Techmeme — another data point on how far the AI infrastructure buildout is spreading beyond the US, China and Japan.

Lifestyle
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" nears the all-time opening-weekend record, with Asia leading the charge

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" posted a $927 million global debut, the second-biggest opening weekend in box-office history behind only "Avengers: Endgame," according to Variety. The film captured 81% market share in South Korea and opened to $121 million over five days in China, according to Variety and Variety.

Ariana Grande says she's stepping back from public life once her tour wraps

Ariana Grande's representative confirmed she plans to take a "step back" from visibility once her current tour ends, citing ongoing public scrutiny, according to Pitchfork and BBC. No specific timeline was given for a return.

Massive Attack speaks out after Singapore bans the band over a Palestinian flag display

Massive Attack called it a "surreal experience" being banned from performing in Singapore after displaying a Palestinian flag onstage during a prior show, according to The Guardian. The band said the ban follows a pattern of pro-Palestinian messaging at its recent performances.

Rain doesn't stop Hong Kong's Chiikawa fans after a roundabout meet-and-greet gets scrapped

Hong Kong's Chiikawa fans kept spending at the character's pop-up despite days of heavy rain forcing organizers to cancel a planned roundabout appearance, according to South China Morning Post — a small but telling sign of how durable the character's commercial pull is across the region, on the heels of its Japanese theatrical debut clearing 3.05 million admissions and 4.4 billion yen in its first ten days, according to Livedoor News.

Kochikame gets a new one-shot manga for its 50th anniversary

Osamu Akimoto is drawing a new one-shot chapter of Kochikame — one of the longest-running manga series in Japanese publishing history — to mark its 50th anniversary, according to Anime News Network. The comedy series about a bumbling Tokyo police officer ran for 40 years in Weekly Shonen Jump before ending its regular run, and the milestone one-shot is a reminder of just how deep its cultural footprint runs in Japan.

The Closer: A popsicle maker says eating one before you go outside actually helps you stay cool

The maker of Japan's beloved Garigari-kun popsicle is testing the idea that eating a frozen treat right before heading out into summer heat works as a kind of "pre-cooling agent," according to SoraNews24 — a delightfully backwards piece of self-serving science that Japan's convenience-store culture was always going to produce eventually.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
Bullion tracked the same Iran-driven risk-off unwind hitting oil.
The streak stands out against broader crypto-fund outflows this month.
The state is also seeking bettor records as part of the case.
A reminder of just how aggressive the package's targets are.
World & Asia
Emergency crews responded to the Ultimo site.
One of the largest urban-adjacent fire evacuations of the summer.
The second major grid failure to hit the island this year.
Export growth continues to outpace BYD's domestic China sales.
A labor-market spillover from Korea's own hiring slowdown.
Culture & Zeitgeist
He insists the cancellation "is not a marketing stunt."
Charli XCX also debuted in the chart's top 3.
The track extends its run atop the UK singles chart.
Organizers delayed the schedule as storms hit the festival grounds.
Fans are debating what it means for the rest of the season.
He has become a fixture at Japan's major disaster-relief efforts.
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CALENDAR · WEEK AHEAD
MON · AUG 3 · TODAY
US ISM Manufacturing PMIMACRO
Japan Final Manufacturing PMIMACRO
US ISM Manufacturing PricesMACRO
~22:30Marriott International Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Shionogi & Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30FUJI CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
TUE · AUG 4
US JOLTS Job OpeningsMACRO
~05:00ONEOK Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Palantir Technologies Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Williams Companies Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~22:30Ametek Inc. earningsEARNINGS
WED · AUG 5
Japan Monetary Policy Meeting MinutesMACRO
US ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
US ISM Services PMIMACRO
~05:00Advanced Micro Devices Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Amgen Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Arista Networks Inc. earningsEARNINGS
THU · AUG 6
US Unemployment ClaimsMACRO
~05:00AppLovin Corp. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Axon Enterprise Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00MetLife Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Motorola Solutions Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Realty Income Corp. earningsEARNINGS
FRI · AUG 7
21:30NFP / US Jobs Report (July 2026)MACRO
US Average Hourly Earnings m/mMACRO
US Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
Japan Household Spending y/yMACRO
~05:00American International Group Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~05:00Republic Services Inc. earningsEARNINGS
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