Podcast Transcripts

Japan Markets

Thinking sharp. Executing big. This is Savvy Giant.

Good morning — this is Tokyo Today, Japan Markets, for Tuesday, September 15, 2026, published at 6:06 AM Japan time.

What happens to the AI hardware trade when the people building AI say they want to slow down? New York delivered its answer overnight, and it was not kind to chipmakers. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Monday. Micron dropped about 5%, Nvidia more than 3%, and names like AMD, Sandisk and Lam Research lost between 5% and 8%.

That matters for Japan's market this morning because the selling kept building after Tokyo had already closed. Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Lasertec and Kioxia took a first hit on Monday. The overnight moves in their biggest customers and peers are new information, and they will be waiting when Japan's market opens shortly.

The trigger was a weekend essay from Anthropic's chief executive, Dario Amodei, arguing the industry must slow how fast AI models become more capable. OpenAI's Sam Altman publicly agreed. Neither company has announced cuts to spending, but investors are now asking whether slower progress means slower demand for training chips.

There is an offset, and it showed up on both sides of the Pacific. In New York, software and cybersecurity stocks rallied hard on the same headlines. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks both jumped around 13%, on the idea that AI risk means more spending on security. In Tokyo, the rotation looked similar on Monday.

The Nikkei 225 fell 0.8% to a 6-week low, near 63,500, after briefly slipping below 63,000 during the session. But the broader TOPIX actually rose, and advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by roughly 4 to 1. Money moved out of a handful of expensive AI names and into banks, utilities, telecoms and retailers. Itochu hit a record high. NTT touched its best level of the year. Meanwhile Kioxia fell about 6% and Taiyo Yuden about 5%.

The single biggest loser was SoftBank Group, down 10.7%. Sam Altman said OpenAI will not go public this year, telling Fortune that with everything happening on safety, now would be an ill-advised moment to list. SoftBank Group's investment story leans heavily on OpenAI, and a listing that slips into 2027 pushes back the moment the market would put a public price on that stake. With chip stocks under fresh pressure overnight, it has little relief coming from its other AI holdings either.

Now to the week's main event for Japan: the Bank of Japan decides on Friday, and a quarter-point hike to 1.25% is the market's base case. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the board will set policy mindful of upside risks to inflation, and the data has only strengthened that case. Producer prices rose 7.6% from a year earlier in August, faster than forecast, and yen-based import prices were up nearly 25%. Some economists now see the policy rate reaching 1.75% by the middle of next year.

So the hike itself is largely priced. What Friday really decides is whether Ueda signals another one. And the Federal Reserve goes first. The Fed is expected to raise rates on Wednesday in Washington, with the decision landing early Thursday Japan time.

That sequence puts the yen in the middle. The dollar is trading near 154.5 yen, keeping the yen close to its strongest level since February after a gain of more than 3% this month. Rate-hike expectations, investors unwinding yen-funded carry trades, and domestic money coming home have all played a part. Cross-border yen borrowing was around 360 trillion yen as of March, so how fast that unwinds is a real question. For Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a firmer yen helps with imported inflation, but the higher rates behind it raise the cost of her 370 trillion yen investment plan.

Japanese government bonds are holding steady ahead of both decisions. The 10-year yield sits just under 3%, and a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities told Reuters it is hard to take aggressive positions while the hike path is this uncertain. The bigger pull may come from abroad. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5% overnight for the first time since 2023, and that kind of move tends to lean on long-dated yields everywhere, including Tokyo.

In corporate Japan, Chubu Electric Power's president and chairman have both resigned after an independent panel found the utility falsified seismic safety data used in regulatory reviews. The company withdrew its applications to restart 2 reactors at its Hamaoka nuclear plant. The panel said pressure from management over restart delays helped drive the misconduct. With crude above 100 dollars, losing that restart leaves Chubu relying on imported fuel for longer, and it gives regulators a governance case other utilities seeking restarts will have to answer.

Energy is also shaping diplomacy. A month after Vladimir Putin visited one of the disputed islands Japan claims, Tokyo has objected but taken no concrete countermeasures, according to Nikkei Asia, because Russia remains an important energy supplier at a time when Middle East supply routes are badly disrupted.

And Japan's megabanks are fighting for deposits again. Mizuho is doubling interest on some deposits, MUFG is rolling out a wealth service for customers with 30 million yen or more, and SMFG is adding point rewards to its Olive app. The industry calls it a return to a world with interest rates, and a hike on Friday would push that contest further.

So Tuesday's session sets up as a test of Monday's rotation. Chip stocks face a second wave of selling from New York, while banks, trading houses and domestic-demand names look to keep absorbing the money leaving them. If that domestic bid holds again, TOPIX can stay resilient even with the Nikkei under pressure, all while the market counts down to the Bank of Japan on Friday.

That's Japan Markets. Keep thinking sharp, and executing big. We're back later today.

Global

Tokyo Today — Global.

Wall Street's headline indexes barely told the story on Monday. The S&P 500 slipped just under half a percent, the Dow about 0.3%, and the Nasdaq about 0.6%. Underneath, chip stocks fell nearly 6% as a group while software surged, with ServiceNow up more than 7% and Adobe up about 5%. The Nasdaq 100 had been down as much as 1.5% early before buyers stepped in. Bank of America was a separate drag, falling about 5% after warning that third-quarter investment banking fees will drop more than 10%.

The bigger force this week is the Federal Reserve. Markets see a better than 85% chance that the Fed raises rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, after August consumer inflation held at 3.4% and core prices rose faster than expected. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023, and the average 30-year mortgage rate jumped to 7.17%, close to a 2-year high. One fund manager told Reuters that a 10-year above 5% may push the Fed to do more than a single hike. For Tokyo, a Fed move on Wednesday lands just a day before the Bank of Japan, and the gap between those two decisions is what the yen will trade on.

Oil is the other pressure point. Brent crude settled about 1.5% higher, at roughly 106 dollars a barrel, after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone strikes launched from Iraq. That pipeline had been Saudi Arabia's main route around the effectively closed Strait of Hormuz, carrying 4 to 5 million barrels a day. Only 14 ships passed through Hormuz on Sunday. Prices came off their highs after President Trump posted that Iran wants to make a deal and that oil will drop like a rock once the conflict is over. There is no deal yet, though, and the Houthis have added to the strain by seizing an island at the mouth of the Red Sea. For Japanese markets, that supports energy producers like INPEX while keeping costs high for airlines, shippers and utilities.

In Asia, South Korea's Kospi fell 3.3% on Monday, with SK Hynix down more than 6% and Samsung Electronics down about 4%. That was before the US chip selloff deepened, so Seoul's session today is the region's first chance to react to it. China and Hong Kong held up better on Monday. Later today, China releases its August industrial production, retail sales and investment figures, ahead of Xi Jinping's White House visit this month. Weak numbers would weigh on Japanese machinery and materials exporters.

In Europe, chip stocks were hit too, with ASML down about 5% early Monday. And European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Europe needs to build its own AI capacity or risk being cut off by the US or China.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, climbed above 79,000 dollars even as chip stocks sank, a sign that appetite for risk outside chips held up.

This week runs through Washington on Wednesday and Tokyo on Friday, with oil deciding how much inflation both central banks are fighting. That's Global.

Tech

Tokyo Today — Tech.

The most important words in tech this week came from the companies building AI, and they were about slowing it down. In a weekend essay, Anthropic's Dario Amodei wrote that the industry must slow the pace at which AI models become more capable. He proposed independent evaluators inside the leading labs, federal regulation of the top US AI companies, and eventually international coordination. OpenAI's Sam Altman replied that he agrees the frontier needs to be paced. On Monday, Microsoft joined in with a code of conduct for its AI models, barring cyberattacks and any attempt to deceive or escape human oversight. Satya Nadella said Microsoft welcomes deliberate pacing to get alignment right.

The White House is not on board. President Trump wrote on Truth Social that there is a sick conspiracy against AI and data centers, that the only one happy about it is China, and that the only guardrail AI needs is a strong and smart president. He also went after Amodei personally. Without federal support, the regulatory part of Amodei's plan has little near-term path, and any slowdown stays voluntary.

Investors did not wait to find out how voluntary. Memory stocks took the hardest hit on Monday. Micron fell about 5%, Sandisk about 5%, and Broadcom nearly 5%. Nvidia lost more than 3%. Analysts at 24/7 Wall Street noted that Micron and Sandisk fell almost in lockstep, which points to selling the whole theme rather than any company news. The one Japanese name squarely in that memory line of fire is Kioxia, which had already dropped more than 6% in Tokyo on Monday.

The money went somewhere. CrowdStrike jumped nearly 14% and Palo Alto Networks about 13%, as investors bet that AI risk means bigger security budgets. CrowdStrike's George Kurtz argued that securing AI matters more than slowing it. That rally could spill into Japanese IT services and security names today.

Anthropic, meanwhile, keeps moving toward the public market. It has picked Nasdaq for a listing that could come as soon as October, and has told investors it expects a second straight profitable quarter. On Monday it also launched Claude for Financial Advisors, with connections to tools from BlackRock, Schwab and others.

In Japan, two companies are placing bets that look sturdier after this week's debate. TDK will spend about 260 million dollars over 3 years to make more of the tiny inductors that cut energy loss in AI servers, a need that holds up whatever the pace of new models. And Fujitsu plans to export AI chips built on its Fugaku supercomputer technology from as early as 2027, aimed at inference, the part of AI demand that depends least on ever-bigger training runs.

If the pacing debate sticks, the winners may be the companies selling efficiency and security. That's Tech.

Lifestyle

Tokyo Today — Lifestyle.

Nadeshiko Japan did not ease into the Asian Games. Japan's women's football team beat Thailand 8-0 in its opening match on Monday, with two players each scoring a hat trick, one in each half. The team is chasing a third straight Asian Games title and a fourth overall, and this time it is playing at home, at the Aichi-Nagoya Games.

The men's volleyball team has its own reason to celebrate. Japan swept Iran in the final of the Asian Championship in Kitakyushu, and the title comes with a place at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

Travelers heading from Kansai Airport to Kyoto now have a much faster option. The first regular helicopter shuttle between the two started flying today, and the trip takes about 25 minutes. By train or bus, it is well over an hour.

Gundam fans in Tokyo are getting a new pilgrimage site. The Gundam Base Shibuya opens in November inside Shibuya Parco, the same building as Nintendo Tokyo and a Pokémon Center. And some of the plastic in future Gundam kits may start life as your old toothbrush: Bandai Namco is working with Kao and Lion to recycle used toothbrushes and detergent packaging into model kits.

Vending machines are about to get cozier. On October 26, Mizkan and Dydo launch hot pot soup in a can, in sesame soy milk and scallop-and-clam flavors, for 160 yen. It arrives the same autumn Starbucks Japan rolls out its first-ever vending machine, with a caramel macchiato you can only get there.

A rivalry that has waited more than 400 years for a rematch. The mayors of Iga and Koka, the two historic homes of Japan's ninja clans, have challenged each other to a nighttime ninja battle on October 3, right on the border between their prefectures. Each city is recruiting 50 warriors. They will fight with foam swords, try to capture the other side's banner, and deal with 3 spies secretly planted in their own ranks. Entry is 5,000 yen, and ninja outfits rent for 1,000. The grudge goes back to 1581, when Koka's ninja sided with Oda Nobunaga's army against Iga. And the stakes this time are clear: the losing mayor has to make promotional content celebrating the winning city.

Enjoy the day. That's Lifestyle.

Scraps

Tokyo Today — Scraps.

On the business side, Nikkei Asia reports that Japan's startup investors are getting choosier, with Sakana AI and Turing among the few big winners. China's DeepSeek has hired a dealmaker as chief financial officer ahead of a possible listing. Toyota is readying a hydrogen-powered Hilux pickup for Europe in 2028. Nidec is pulling production out of Cambodia because of the Thailand border conflict. And Nikkei Asia also finds Japan's inflow of foreign professionals slowing, as AI cuts into white-collar hiring.

In the wider world, Okinawa has a new governor, Genta Koja, backed by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, who accepts moving the Futenma air base to Henoko. Beijing raised visa fees for Japanese travelers about 7-fold, citing reciprocity. The European Union is set to propose banning social media and AI chatbots for children under 15. Regulators in China are taking aim at so-called AI boyfriends, the companion chatbots. And OpenAI says it is in talks to train models in Australia.

And in culture, Mount Fuji climbers who head up off-season may soon face fees for helicopter rescues. Japan's latest social media snack craze is something called Dot Butter. The in-store ramen machine at 7-Eleven has gone viral. A 220-meter suspension bridge with no towers opened high above Lake Biwa. And a Burger King in a traditional Japanese-style building has become an unlikely photo spot.

That's the roundup — and that's Tokyo Today.