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TokyoToday
TUE · AUG 4 · 5:52 PM JST
BY SAVVY GIANT · DAILY · TEXT · AUDIO · JST
Pre & Post Market + Weekends & Holidays
Japan Markets

Tokyo closed higher Tuesday, clawing back some of Monday's yen-driven slide as chip names rebounded across the region. Toyota raised its profit outlook and unveiled a ¥1 trillion buyback after the close. The yen gave back a slice of last week's intervention-driven gains, and Kumamoto's earthquake story widened into a second, harder chapter: five mall workers ordered back inside by their employers before an explosion killed them.

Tokyo rebounds as chip names lead a region-wide bounce back from Monday's rout

The Nikkei 225 and TOPIX both closed higher Tuesday, recovering ground after Monday's yen-driven selloff, as technology and chip-equipment names rebounded alongside a broader Asia tech snapback, according to TradingKey. Kioxia was among the standout gainers, surging nearly 6% as the NAND maker rode the same memory-shortage narrative pressuring supply chains worldwide. The bounce mirrored a rebound in Seoul, where the Kospi and Kosdaq clawed back a slice of Monday's rout as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stabilized after Monday's near-9% declines. US futures were pointing modestly higher heading into tonight's session — Dow futures up around 0.2%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures both up roughly 0.2-0.3% — building on Monday's rally to a record Dow close, according to CNBC.

Toyota lifts its profit outlook and unveils a ¥1 trillion buyback as hybrid demand offsets tariffs

Toyota raised its full-year operating profit outlook by more than 10% to ¥3.4 trillion and announced a ¥1 trillion ($6.3 billion) share buyback after today's close, as resilient hybrid demand and the yen's earlier weakness offset rising costs, tariffs and supply disruptions, according to Bloomberg and the Japan Times. Tariffs alone cost the automaker roughly ¥1.38 trillion in the fiscal year, according to TradingKey — a concrete number on the drag Toyota has been guiding around all year. Wall Street's average profit estimate still sits above Toyota's raised guidance, leaving room for the stock to react either way depending on how the rest of the call goes.

The yen gives back some of its intervention rally as traders test Tokyo and Washington's resolve

The yen weakened Tuesday, rising nearly 0.4% to around 157.7 per dollar and slipping back from last week's sharp intervention-driven rally, as traders grew less certain further official action was imminent, according to Investing.com. EUR/JPY drifted in sympathy with the broader yen retreat, though no fresh cross-rate print was available to cite. Japanese authorities are estimated to have bought roughly ¥5 trillion of yen in Friday's coordinated operation with the US Treasury, on top of a larger Thursday intervention — a two-day total north of ¥10 trillion, according to Nippon.com and Bloomberg. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent structured the US side of the operation by selling euros rather than dollars to buy yen — a choice that supports the currency without weakening the greenback — and said Washington "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention," according to CNBC. Tuesday's pullback is an early test of whether that pledge is enough to hold the line without another live operation. The 10-year JGB yield held firm against the BOJ's loose policy band as the hawkish-minority debate continues, while the 10-year UST yield sat near 4.68% as of last week's reading — both still the backdrop rate-differential story behind the yen's whole move.

Kumamoto's death toll rises to 38 as the government sets an end-of-August deadline to restore water

The death toll from last week's Kumamoto earthquake rose to 38, with more than 8,200 people still in evacuation shelters a week after the quake struck, according to NewsOnJapan. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told a government emergency-response meeting Tuesday that the goal is to restore water service to every affected area by the end of August, directing agencies to prioritize shelters and medical facilities with water trucks in the meantime. Roughly 12,276 homes were damaged in the quake, and temporary housing construction began Monday in Uki and Hikawa. TSMC separately pledged ¥250 million toward relief efforts, according to Livedoor News, underscoring how directly the region's chip-manufacturing base is tied into the recovery.

Two retailers face scrutiny after ordering employees back into a mall before a fatal explosion

A separate, harder story emerged from the same disaster: an explosion at an Aeon Mall in Kumamoto killed five employees who had evacuated safely after the earthquake but were then told by their employers to go back inside, according to NewsOnJapan. Cosmetics retailer Habita had directed two employees to return sales proceeds to a safe; apparel company Onward Holdings had sent three employees back for valuables, with one calling in afterward to ask what else needed doing. Onward Holdings, a Tokyo-listed company, said the guidance given to staff was insufficiently thorough and that it takes the outcome with deep remorse, according to Asahi Shimbun. Families of the victims have called the deaths avoidable, and the episode is now a live question for how retailers write emergency protocols after an earthquake before an aftershock or secondary hazard has been ruled out.

Sumitomo Pharma slides after a short seller alleges a $1 billion accounting discrepancy

Sumitomo Pharma shares fell as much as 3.7% Tuesday after short seller Gotham City Research accused the drugmaker of misstating its fiscal 2025 financial statements by as much as ¥165 billion ($1.05 billion), alleging manipulated receivables inflated both its own profit and that of parent Sumitomo Chemical, according to Investing.com. The report centers on a discrepancy between a ¥48 billion dividend Sumitomo Pharma's Swiss subsidiary announced in March and a ¥164 billion "distributions-in-kind" figure that later appeared in the parent company's own financial-statement notes. Sumitomo Chemical shares fell in sympathy, down 3.6% to ¥494.1. Neither company had issued a formal rebuttal to Gotham's allegations as of Tuesday.

A record shunto wage tally lands as the coalition pushes a food tax cut toward the Diet

Japan's biggest companies raised wages by 5.37% in this year's spring labor negotiations, the largest yen amount on record, according to Keidanren's final shunto tally reported by Asahi Shimbun — a fresh data point for the BOJ's debate over whether wage growth is durable enough to justify a faster hiking path. Separately, the government signaled it intends to submit its food consumption-tax cut bill to an extraordinary Diet session, according to Yahoo Japan, moving the ruling coalition's campaign pledge from design questions toward an actual legislative calendar — though the roughly ¥5-trillion-a-year funding fight inside the LDP tax panel remains unresolved.

Global
Oil snaps back as Trump calls Iran talks a "last chance," and BP and Aramco cash in on the war premium

Oil prices rebounded Tuesday after Monday's sharp plunge, as President Trump called the latest round of talks with Iran the "last chance" to end the five-month conflict and Tehran denied any direct negotiations were underway, according to CNBC. Trump said he agreed to keep pursuing talks at the request of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, while Iran continues to restrict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to a route hugging its own coast. The war's earnings windfall showed up directly in today's results: BP's profit more than doubled to $4.6 billion in the second quarter, and Saudi Aramco's adjusted net income rose 33% to $33.4 billion as its average realized crude price jumped to $108 a barrel from $66.70 a year earlier, according to Arab News. Trump, who blasted Exxon and Chevron a day earlier for "making too much money," kept up the pressure on BP and other majors Tuesday, demanding lower prices at the pump even as the same conflict he's negotiating over is what's inflating their profits.

HSBC resumes buybacks as quarterly profit jumps to $10.1 billion

HSBC's quarterly profit surged to $10.1 billion, beating analyst estimates on higher net interest income and fee growth, and the bank resumed share buybacks as a result, according to the Financial Times. It's a strong showing for a bank whose fortunes are closely tied to Asian trade and rate cycles, landing the same week Japan's own megabanks are posting record profits off the BOJ's tightening path.

Seoul's chip stocks claw back most of Monday's historic rout

The Kospi closed up 1.62% Tuesday, clawing back a slice of Monday's 5.13% plunge, while the Kosdaq surged nearly 6% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both stabilized after Monday's near-9% declines, according to TradingKey. SK Hynix separately opened talks with its labor union over bonus pay, according to Investing.com, a reminder that South Korea's memory boom is now generating its own labor-cost pressure alongside the capacity buildout.

A fourth wave of Coldcard thefts pushes the total toward $130 million as bitcoin holds near $64,000

Losses tied to the Coldcard hardware-wallet firmware flaw could swell to $130 million across three confirmed attack waves, according to Galaxy Research — up sharply from the roughly $89 million estimate reported a day earlier. Bitcoin itself has largely shrugged off the news, trading near $64,000 as traders look past both the hack and Strategy's latest bitcoin sales, according to CoinDesk. Researchers still haven't confirmed whether a single operator is behind all four attack waves.

Grab says AI is already showing up in its numbers, and raises its forecast

Southeast Asian super-app Grab said AI tools are helping it ship products more than 30% faster and raised its full-year forecast as a result, according to CNBC — a rare case of a consumer-facing Asian tech name pointing to AI as a near-term operating-margin story rather than a future promise.

This week's US jobs report looms over an already loaded earnings slate

Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report — expected to show roughly 85,000 jobs added, against last month's 57,000 — arrives in a week already packed with market-moving prints, with Palantir, SpaceX and AMD all reporting within days of each other, according to digest coverage of Barron's preview. A soft print would add fresh weight to the case for a faster Fed pivot just as the BOJ's own hawkish minority is pushing the other way on rates.

Tech
Chinese memory maker CXMT lands inside HP, Asus and Acer laptops as the DRAM shortage bites

HP, Asus and Acer have started using small amounts of DRAM chips from China's CXMT in laptops built for markets outside the US, as an unprecedented global memory shortage forces PC makers to diversify beyond their usual suppliers, according to Nikkei Asia. CXMT is a DRAM-only producer, so the shift lands squarely in the same commodity-memory category where Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron compete — not the higher-margin HBM stacks reserved for AI accelerators — but it's still a real toehold for a Chinese chipmaker inside mainstream Western PC brands, one that stays narrow for now given the risk of backlash from Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix. Micron shares fell on the news, extending a rough stretch that includes a separate report of Apple testing CXMT's memory chips for devices sold in China, according to Yahoo Finance — pressure that's showing up on the Tokyo side of the trade too, with Kioxia's rally Tuesday reading as the market betting NAND-focused suppliers benefit from the same shortage squeezing DRAM.

Palantir posts a blowout quarter, and its CEO calls the AI industry "Marxist"

Palantir's second-quarter revenue rose 93% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, with profit of $1.1 billion exceeding the company's entire revenue from a year earlier, according to TechCrunch. In the same shareholder letter, CEO Alex Karp argued leading AI labs have "Marxist overtones" in how they treat enterprise partners, writing that the labs aim to "capture the means of production of their purported partners" by extracting client data and expertise to build competing products. Karp framed Palantir's model-agnostic approach — letting clients keep control of their own data — as the alternative, a pitch that doubles as a direct shot at the AI labs Palantir increasingly competes with for enterprise contracts.

Apple asks a US court to block two ex-staffers and OpenAI from using confidential information

Apple has asked a federal judge for a preliminary injunction barring two former employees and OpenAI from accessing, acquiring, using or disclosing Apple's confidential information, according to Techmeme, citing Reuters. OpenAI disputed Apple's account of what happened before the lawsuit was filed, saying it has shared iMessages and emails contradicting claims that the ex-staff used confidential material. The dispute lands weeks before Apple's own leadership handoff: CEO Tim Cook's final day is set for August 31, with hardware chief John Ternus taking over September 1 — making today's earnings one of Cook's last as chief executive, a milestone Wall Street is already using as a lens on Apple's next decade.

Texas hits pause on new AI data centers as Fitch flags a credit risk in the AI buildout

Texas has halted approval of new data-center grid connections until audits are completed, with projects representing more than 474 gigawatts already in the queue — over five times the state grid's peak demand, according to The Texas Tribune, via Techmeme. The pause lands the same week Fitch warned that a correction in AI spending could pose a real risk to corporate credit markets, given how much of the hyperscaler buildout is now funded by debt rather than cash flow, according to The Motley Fool. Together they're a reminder that the AI capex story now has two real physical constraints — grid capacity and credit appetite — sitting underneath the demand narrative that's been driving chip names in both Seoul and Tokyo.

AMD and SpaceX both report after tonight's US close

AMD reports after today's US close with Wall Street looking for adjusted earnings of $1.61 a share on revenue up nearly 47%, according to MarketWatch, and SpaceX follows with its first earnings report as a public company, with consensus calling for roughly $6.82 billion in quarterly revenue, according to The Motley Fool. Both prints carry real read-through for Tokyo's chip-equipment names by Wednesday morning, depending on whether AMD's numbers confirm Microsoft's Azure results as a second data point that AI infrastructure demand is still accelerating.

Lifestyle
Ariana Grande tells fans her upcoming break was planned, not a reaction to anything

Ariana Grande paused her Chicago tour stop to address her planned break from the public eye directly, telling the crowd "nothing has been ruined" and that the decision was made in advance rather than in response to recent scrutiny, according to Billboard and Variety. "Boundaries, they need to be set," she told the audience, framing the pause as a deliberate choice rather than a retreat.

A Tokyo movie theater apologizes after its air conditioning fails mid-heatwave

TOHO Cinemas' Oi-machi location in Tokyo issued a public apology after its air conditioning broke down during a screening in the middle of Japan's ongoing heatwave, prompting an emergency repair, according to Livedoor News. Patrons described the theater as unbearably hot before staff scrambled to fix the system — a small but very of-the-summer glimpse into just how relentless this year's heat has been.

BLACKPINK's Jennie says a Rihanna-style business pivot "would be a dream"

BLACKPINK's Jennie said she'd love to eventually build ventures beyond music the way Rihanna has, in a new interview making the rounds this week, according to Billboard — a window into how K-pop's biggest stars are already thinking about their next act.

Samantha Morton credits Christopher Nolan with keeping her career going at 49

Actress Samantha Morton said working with Christopher Nolan on "The Odyssey" gave her hope she could keep working in an industry that too often sidelines women past a certain age, according to Business Insider — a personal footnote to a film that's already reshaping this summer's box office.

"WAP" officially goes Diamond, and Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion are celebrating

Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion marked the RIAA's Diamond certification for "WAP" — 10 million units sold or streamed — with both artists calling out the milestone on social media, according to Billboard. Six years after its release, the song remains one of the defining hits of its era.

A century-old Japanese prison reopens as a 48-suite luxury hotel — and guests are booking out to sleep in the old cells

HOSHINOYA Nara Prison opened its doors this summer inside the country's last intact Meiji-era prison, a red-brick building completed in 1908 that later served as a juvenile detention facility before closing in 2017, according to Forbes. Hoshino Resorts spent roughly seven years restoring four of the original five cell wings into 48 guest suites, deliberately keeping the exposed brick, arched ceilings and high, narrow windows rather than softening them — leaning into the building's severity instead of disguising it. It's one of Japan's most unusual hotel openings in years: a nationally designated cultural property, once built to confine people, now selling out as a destination people pay to check into.

Scraps
Markets & Macro
The filing signals a large potential dilution event for the AI-defense contractor.
The rebound comes after a tough stretch for UK construction demand.
The bottler held its interim dividend steady despite the beat.
The deal expands Mastercard's stablecoin-payments push.
World & Asia
The Nagoya closure would end direct US consular presence in central Japan.
The document reflects rising concern over drone and AI-enabled warfare in the region.
The toll comes amid a broader East Asian heatwave also straining Japan.
Zoo officials are reviewing cooling measures for large animals amid record temperatures.
Low river levels threatened the plant's cooling-water supply.
Culture & Tech
The move follows abuse of smart-TV bandwidth for anonymized traffic routing.
Prosecutors say the withdrawals targeted wallets tied to a criminal investigation.
He argued the approach is a poor fit for a safety-critical product like autonomous driving.
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CALENDAR · WEEK AHEAD
TUE · AUG 4 · TODAY
US JOLTS Job OpeningsMACRO
~15:30IBIDEN CO.,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30NIPPON STEEL CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30KUBOTA CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30DAIKIN INDUSTRIES,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Mitsubishi Heavy Industries,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
WED · AUG 5
Japan Monetary Policy Meeting MinutesMACRO
US ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
US ISM Services PMIMACRO
~15:30KAJIMA CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30KIKKOMAN CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30NITTO BOSEKI CO.,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
THU · AUG 6
US Unemployment ClaimsMACRO
~15:30DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO.,LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Ajinomoto Co.,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30UNITIKA LTD. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Resonac Holdings Corporation earningsEARNINGS
~15:30FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation earningsEARNINGS
FRI · AUG 7
21:30NFP / US Jobs Report (July 2026)MACRO
US Average Hourly Earnings m/mMACRO
US Non-Farm Employment ChangeMACRO
Japan Household Spending y/yMACRO
~15:30OBAYASHI CORPORATION earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Kirin Holdings Company,Limited earningsEARNINGS
MON · AUG 10
08:50BOJ Summary of Opinions (July 30-31 MPM) — confirm dateMACRO
~15:30SHO-BOND Holdings Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30Sumitomo Metal Mining Co.,Ltd. earningsEARNINGS
~15:30QD Laser,Inc. earningsEARNINGS
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