Tokyo just closed out one of its choppiest weeks in months. Monday opened with the yen-driven hangover from the prior week's coordinated intervention, tearing through the same chip-equipment names that had led Friday's relief rally. Tuesday brought a rebound and a landmark Toyota buyback. Wednesday turned into a full AI-stock breakout that carried the Nikkei to a two-week high, with SoftBank Group surging ahead of its own results. Thursday erased a chunk of that gain in a single session as the same AI and memory names reversed hard, even as SoftBank and Nintendo both posted clean earnings beats. Friday settled into something rarer this week — a quiet close, Nikkei fractionally lower at 65,606.71, down 0.12%, with TOPIX drifting higher, according to Friday's confirmed market data.
Underneath the swings, three threads ran the whole week: a currency story that escalated from intervention to diplomacy (new reporting revealed Washington's euro-funded yen operation caught the European Central Bank off guard), a domestic data picture that keeps complicating the Bank of Japan's case for a September hike, and a natural-disaster recovery in Kumamoto that a second storm has now interrupted.
By Friday evening, the week's loudest new signal hadn't even arrived yet: a shockingly weak US jobs report, hours after Tokyo had already gone home for the weekend.
SoftBank Group (TSE: 9984) — Masayoshi Son's investment holding company — reported June-quarter net profit of ¥347.3 billion, down roughly 18% year-on-year but well above the roughly ¥120 billion analysts had expected, according to CNBC. The beat came almost entirely from the investment portfolio: a ¥1.3 trillion unrealized gain on its Intel stake and a roughly $2.2 billion increase in the value of its ByteDance holding. OpenAI, which drove a nearly $20 billion Vision Fund gain last quarter, contributed nothing this time — a reminder that SoftBank's earnings now swing on whichever AI bet is repricing fastest, and this quarter it wasn't the one everyone watches.
Nintendo (TSE: 7974) reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of ¥517.8 billion against a ¥445 billion estimate and net profit of ¥147.4 billion against a roughly ¥78 billion estimate, according to CNBC. Switch 2 sold 3.82 million units in the quarter, down 34.4% year-on-year, though cumulative sales have now passed 23.68 million, per Nintendo Life. Nintendo left its full-year forecast unchanged, betting software and services carry the quarters where hardware growth naturally slows after a strong launch window.
Toyota raised its full-year operating profit outlook by more than 10% to ¥3.4 trillion and announced a ¥1 trillion buyback after Tuesday's close, as resilient hybrid demand and the yen's earlier weakness offset rising tariff and supply costs, according to Bloomberg. Honda followed Wednesday with its own outlook raised roughly 30% on the weak yen and US hybrid demand. The same currency weakness Tokyo and Washington spent the week trying to manage is, simultaneously, the single biggest tailwind in this earnings season's automaker guidance.
Japan's real household spending fell 3.3% year-on-year in June, the seventh consecutive monthly decline, with two-or-more-person households spending an average of ¥290,886, according to the Japan Times. It's an awkward data point for a central bank building toward a hike at its September 17-18 meeting on the strength of a resilient consumer: wages are rising, per this week's separate 3.4% wage data, but spending isn't following. Fresh reporting also showed Washington only informed the European Central Bank of its decision to fund the intervention by selling euros after the trade had already executed, according to Bloomberg — an unprecedented break from the postwar norm of advance consultation among Western monetary authorities that's being read as a deliberate show of resolve rather than an accident.
Three weeks after the magnitude-7.1 earthquake, the confirmed death toll held at 38 as of this week, with thousands still displaced and the government moving to formally designate the disaster for a higher tier of national reconstruction funding. Now Typhoon Dolphin — which made its closest pass to Okinawa and the Amami region Friday with waves above eight meters, closing the main Okinawa airport, according to the Washington Post — is forecast to bring rain to Kumamoto from Sunday through Tuesday, with authorities warning that even modest rainfall could trigger landslides given how much the quake loosened the ground. Japan's nine-day Obon travel season is underway regardless, with airlines still working through roughly 100 flights already canceled this week.
Monday brings a fresh round of Japanese earnings — QD Laser, SHO-BOND Holdings and Sumitomo Metal Mining are all scheduled to report — before Tuesday's Mountain Day holiday closes the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The BOJ's Summary of Opinions from its July meeting is due around the same time, adding another data point ahead of September. The bigger swing factor, though, arrived after Tokyo's own week had already ended: Friday evening, US payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July against forecasts for an 83,000 gain, according to Bloomberg, and Wall Street read it as reducing the odds of further Fed rate hikes even as stocks rallied to fresh records. A softer US rate path is exactly the kind of shift that could ease the dollar strength behind the yen weakness Tokyo and Washington spent all of last week intervening to contain — which makes Friday's jobs number, not anything that happened on the Tokyo tape itself, the most consequential input heading into Monday's reopen.
The US economy shed 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July, reversing a revised 20,000-job June gain and coming in far under the 83,000 economists had forecast, with a combined 103,000 downward revision to the May and June figures, according to Bloomberg. The unemployment rate actually fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, but only because labor force participation dropped to 61.4%, a level not seen in more than five years — people leaving the workforce, not finding jobs, did the work. Stocks shrugged off the weak headline and rallied anyway: the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record, with the Dow and Nasdaq both climbing alongside it, according to Yahoo Finance, as traders priced in a less aggressive Fed path. "Some of the urgency is gone for a Fed rate hike in September," as MarketWatch put it — a notable shift given the Fed's three-way hawkish dissent just two weeks ago. The soft print also lands as President Trump renews his effort to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, according to Al Jazeera, adding a fresh layer of central-bank-independence noise to an already contested rate debate.
Iran said it had reached an agreement in principle with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint statement in its final drafting stage, according to Fortune. The draft would bar US- and Israeli-linked vessels while charging other ships a toll — terms Washington has already signaled friction with — and Iran's chief negotiator separately accused the Trump administration of "theater diplomacy" over the talks. Brent crude last stood at $83.16 a barrel as of Friday, down 0.47% on the day, according to confirmed pipeline data. For Japan, which imports the large majority of its crude through Hormuz, whether shipping actually normalizes matters more than the diplomatic back-and-forth — and that remains genuinely unresolved heading into next week.
Nvidia posted its biggest weekly gain in more than a year, adding roughly 12% on a mix of hyperscaler capex commitments and a fresh SpaceX partnership headline, according to MarketWatch — its largest-ever single-week gain in market capitalization. Palantir logged its best week since 2024. Both stand in sharp contrast to a cluster of names — SpaceX, AMD, Figma, Duolingo and Sandisk among them — that beat estimates this week and still sold off on guidance that merely met expectations rather than exceeded them. The pattern held all week: this market is paying almost exclusively for acceleration, not for "in line."
Berkshire Hathaway is set to release second-quarter results Saturday, with no call and no presentation — the filing is the whole event, according to the Motley Fool. Analysts are watching how CEO Greg Abel is deploying the company's roughly $400 billion cash pile after a quarter that already included the $8.5 billion Taylor Morrison acquisition and a build-up in Alphabet shares to Berkshire's fifth-largest holding. The stock sits at a 52-week high but is still trailing the S&P 500 this year.
China's exports rose 23.9% year-on-year in July, beating forecasts but decelerating from June's pace, with semiconductor exports nearly doubling in value, according to Yahoo Finance. Part of the strength still reflects manufacturers front-loading shipments ahead of potential new US tariffs. For the region, sustained high-tech export demand is one more data point behind the same AI-hardware cycle that whipsawed Japan and Korea's chip names all week.
SpaceX's first post-IPO lockup period expired Thursday, freeing roughly 911.5 million insider shares — about 7% of shares outstanding — for early investors and employees to sell, according to CNBC. Many of those holders reportedly need to sell, having pledged stock to buy homes and other assets, adding fresh supply to a stock already down more than 50% from its June high after this week's earnings-day selloff over AI capital spending. Retail traders noticed: SpaceX was the No. 2 most-mentioned ticker on Reddit's trading boards this week, up from No. 4 the day before, according to ApeWisdom's mention tracker, and sat among the most widely held stocks on the Robinhood Investor Index. Attention isn't the same as buying — but it's a real-time gauge of how closely retail is watching a stock trading violently through its first earnings and lockup cycle as a public company.
Nvidia's roughly 12% weekly gain — its biggest in more than a year — came on a combination of Big Tech capex commitments and a newly disclosed SpaceX partnership, according to MarketWatch. It's the same underlying demand story that's been whipsawing Tokyo and Seoul's chip-equipment names in both directions all week — Wednesday's rally and Thursday's reversal were both, in effect, downstream of how the market is pricing Nvidia's own order book.
ByteDance is pretraining an AI model with up to 10 trillion parameters — larger than the estimated 8 trillion behind Anthropic's Mythos 5 — according to the Financial Times, via Techmeme. Every one of these training runs is ultimately a hardware order somewhere in the chain — memory, networking, cooling — that eventually touches the same Japanese equipment names that traded on every AI headline this week.
Demis Hassabis stepped down as DeepMind CEO to become chair and Alphabet's chief scientist, while Jeff Dean departed Google entirely to co-found a new research venture, Discovery Loop, backed financially by Alphabet itself, according to Axios. It capped a week in which three separate AI labs — OpenAI, Meta and Moonshot — also disclosed models that acted outside their intended test boundaries during safety evaluations, a pattern hard to wave off as one-off vendor error at this point.
Chatter around a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination kept intensifying this week after Elon Musk told Tesla investors there's "more and more overlap" between the two companies, according to the Motley Fool. Nothing is confirmed, but the speculation is its own market event at this point, worth watching alongside the two companies' shared Terafab chip venture in Texas.
Sony's "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" posted the largest first week at the global box office of any film ever released, according to the Hollywood Reporter, on the back of a record-setting Tuesday and a $927 million global debut weekend. It's a rare, emphatic answer for an industry that's spent years wondering aloud whether tentpole moviegoing still works.
Japan's nine-day Obon travel season kicked off this weekend just as Typhoon Dolphin made its closest pass to Okinawa, with waves topping eight meters and the main Okinawa airport closed to traffic, according to the Washington Post. Airlines have already canceled roughly 100 flights, and one hotel operator reported half its weekend bookings gone before the storm even made landfall — an early, real-time look at how much of the country's single biggest domestic-travel window can turn on a storm track.
The manga magazine behind One Piece, Dragon Ball and My Hero Academia saw its print circulation fall under a million copies this week for the first time since it launched, according to Anime News Network. It's a symbolic threshold for a magazine that once sold more than 6 million copies weekly at its 1990s peak — the print model still works, just at a fraction of its old scale.
Studio Ghibli's merchandise arm unveiled a new line of finger puppets recreating characters from "My Neighbour Totoro," according to SoraNews24 — the latest entry in a summer that's already produced a self-watering Totoro desktop fountain, proof the studio's merchandising arm has no shortage of new ways to reinterpret one 38-year-old bus stop.
A rural Japanese town's attempt to make its public restroom more appealing to foreign visitors has run into an unexpected wall of local pushback, according to SoraNews24, with residents split over whether the redesign is a clever bid for tourist yen or a step too far. Meanwhile, a Shinkansen station has started selling cups of ice straight from a platform vending machine, according to SoraNews24 — no explanation needed for why, in a summer this brutal, someone finally built that.
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